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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sevilla and Elche share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sevilla and Elche finished level at 2-2 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 4, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.27 xG and Elche 1.09 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Elche outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 0.90 / defence 1.12 against Elche attack 0.86 / defence 1.04, drawn from 41/3 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sevilla 40% | Draw 28% | Elche 32%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 67%, Elche 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sevilla's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Elche's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Elche arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Elche shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights