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Prediction vindicated as Celta Vigo edge out Sevilla 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Celta Vigo beat Sevilla 0-1 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.06 xG and Celta Vigo 1.56 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sevilla fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 0.97 / defence 1.26 against Celta Vigo attack 1.12 / defence 0.77, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sevilla 24% | Draw 29% | Celta Vigo 47%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 48%, Celta Vigo 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sevilla's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Celta Vigo's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sevilla 1.09 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Sevilla (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights