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Shock result as Sevilla defy the odds to beat Atletico Madrid 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sevilla beat Atletico Madrid 2-1 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.08 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.30 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sevilla beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 0.77 / defence 1.17 against Atletico Madrid attack 0.99 / defence 0.90, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sevilla 31% | Draw 28% | Atletico Madrid 42%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Sevilla win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 47%, Atletico Madrid 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sevilla's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Atletico Madrid's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Sevilla winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sevilla (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights