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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Atletico Madrid edge out Sevilla 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atletico Madrid beat Sevilla 1-2 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 30, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 0.83 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.37 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 0.76 / defence 1.02 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.10 / defence 0.79, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sevilla 23% | Draw 28% | Atletico Madrid 50%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 45%, Atletico Madrid 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sevilla's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Atletico Madrid's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 1.99 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights