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Prediction vindicated as Sevilla edge out Athletic Club 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sevilla beat Athletic Club 2-1 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 21, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.33 xG and Athletic Club 1.22 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 0.88 / defence 1.20 against Athletic Club attack 0.90 / defence 1.04, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sevilla 38% | Draw 29% | Athletic Club 33%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 48%, Athletic Club 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sevilla's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Athletic Club's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Sevilla winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sevilla (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm. Athletic Club (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights