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Sevilla and Alaves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 32, as Sevilla and Alaves drew 1-1 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.15 xG and Alaves 1.43 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 0.81 / defence 1.06 against Alaves attack 1.07 / defence 1.06, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sevilla 30% | Draw 26% | Alaves 44%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 45%, Alaves 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sevilla's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Alaves's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sevilla 1.12 PPG, Alaves 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights