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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Villarreal edge out Real Sociedad 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Villarreal beat Real Sociedad 2-3 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.20 xG and Villarreal 1.38 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Real Sociedad beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Villarreal outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 1.03 / defence 1.07 against Villarreal attack 1.15 / defence 0.83, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 32% | Draw 26% | Villarreal 41%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 45%, Villarreal 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Sociedad's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.

Villarreal's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights