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Prediction vindicated as Real Sociedad edge out Villarreal 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Sociedad beat Villarreal 1-0 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.32 xG and Villarreal 1.22 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Villarreal landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 0.85 / defence 0.80 against Villarreal attack 1.30 / defence 1.10, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 39% | Draw 27% | Villarreal 34%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 34%, Villarreal 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Sociedad's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Villarreal's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Real Sociedad 1.52 PPG, Villarreal 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Sociedad win broke the near-deadlock. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Villarreal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights