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Prediction vindicated as Real Sociedad edge out Valladolid 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Sociedad beat Valladolid 2-1 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 2.16 xG and Valladolid 0.73 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 0.87 / defence 0.87 against Valladolid attack 0.73 / defence 1.73, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 70% | Draw 18% | Valladolid 11%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 70%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 39%, Valladolid 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Sociedad's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 21% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Valladolid's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.57. Form held, and they took the win. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm. Valladolid (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights