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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Valencia defy the odds to beat Real Sociedad 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valencia beat Real Sociedad 3-4 at Anoeta, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.50 xG and Valencia 1.22 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Real Sociedad beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Valencia outscored their 1.22 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 1.18 / defence 1.21 against Valencia attack 0.88 / defence 0.84, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 44% | Draw 25% | Valencia 31%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Valencia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 50%, Valencia 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Sociedad's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Valencia's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Real Sociedad 1.23 PPG, Valencia 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valencia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights