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Shock result as Rayo Vallecano defy the odds to beat Real Sociedad 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayo Vallecano beat Real Sociedad 0-1 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.39 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.15 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Real Sociedad fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 0.89 / defence 1.00 against Rayo Vallecano attack 1.01 / defence 1.04, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 41% | Draw 28% | Rayo Vallecano 30%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Rayo Vallecano win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 44%, Rayo Vallecano 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Sociedad's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Real Sociedad 1.13 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayo Vallecano win broke the near-deadlock. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights