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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

La Liga · Regular Season - 8

Kick-off

Sun 5 Oct 2025

17:30

Venue

Reale Arena

Competition

La Liga

Spain

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Real Sociedad Win

41%

Real Sociedad

2.41

28%

Draw

3.55

30%

Rayo Vallecano

3.29

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.6%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

10.9%

Home win

0 – 1

9.1%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.39

Real Sociedad xG

Total xG

2.54

1.15

Rayo Vallecano xG

41%
28%
30%
Real SociedadDrawRayo Vallecano

2.41

41%

Home win

3.55

28%

Draw

3.29

30%

Away win

Goals Markets

72%

Over 1.5

1.39

28%

Under 1.5

3.57

47%

Over 2.5

2.13

53%

Under 2.5

1.89

25%

Over 3.5

4.00

75%

Under 3.5

1.33

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

52%

BTTS Yes

1.92

48%

BTTS No

2.09

Clean Sheet

32%

Real Sociedad

3.16

25%

Rayo Vallecano

4.01

Win to Nil

13%

Real Sociedad

7.63

8%

Rayo Vallecano

13.20

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.9 9.1 5.2 2.0 0.6 0.1
1 10.9 12.6 7.3 2.8 0.8 0.2
2 7.6 8.8 5.0 1.9 0.6 0.1
3 3.5 4.0 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1
4 1.2 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1
5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.388
λ Away (xG) 1.152
Total xG 2.540
League avg home goals 1.490
League avg away goals 1.136
Real Sociedad attack strength 0.892
Real Sociedad defence strength 1.000
Rayo Vallecano attack strength 1.015
Rayo Vallecano defence strength 1.044
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 45 / 45