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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Real Sociedad and Oviedo share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Sociedad and Oviedo finished level at 3-3 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 2.33 xG and Oviedo 0.94 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Oviedo outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 1.16 / defence 1.09 against Oviedo attack 0.77 / defence 1.33, drawn from 62/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 67% | Draw 20% | Oviedo 13%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 61%, Oviedo 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Sociedad's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.

Oviedo's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oviedo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights