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Prediction vindicated as Real Sociedad edge out Mallorca 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Sociedad beat Mallorca 1-0 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.56 xG and Mallorca 1.29 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mallorca landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 0.97 / defence 1.10 against Mallorca attack 1.01 / defence 1.11, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 42% | Draw 27% | Mallorca 30%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 44%, Mallorca 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Sociedad's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Mallorca's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Real Sociedad 1.12 PPG, Mallorca 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Sociedad win broke the near-deadlock. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights