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Stalemate at Real Sociedad's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 17, as Real Sociedad and Las Palmas drew 0-0 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.38 xG and Las Palmas 1.08 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Real Sociedad fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Las Palmas landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 0.91 / defence 0.85 against Las Palmas attack 1.10 / defence 1.04, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 44% | Draw 27% | Las Palmas 29%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 35%, Las Palmas 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Sociedad's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Las Palmas's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Las Palmas (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights