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Shock result as Girona defy the odds to beat Real Sociedad 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Girona beat Real Sociedad 1-2 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.82 xG and Girona 1.12 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Real Sociedad fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Girona outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 1.11 / defence 1.21 against Girona attack 0.83 / defence 1.20, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 54% | Draw 23% | Girona 23%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Girona win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 45%, Girona 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Sociedad's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Girona's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Real Sociedad 1.17 PPG, Girona 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Girona win broke the near-deadlock. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Girona (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights