🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Real Sociedad edge out Girona 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Sociedad beat Girona 3-2 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.02 xG and Girona 0.84 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Real Sociedad beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Girona outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 0.69 / defence 0.89 against Girona attack 0.81 / defence 1.07, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 39% | Draw 32% | Girona 29%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 40%, Girona 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Sociedad's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Girona's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Real Sociedad 1.39 PPG, Girona 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Sociedad win broke the near-deadlock. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Girona (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights