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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Real Sociedad cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Celta Vigo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Sociedad beat Celta Vigo 3-1 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.05 xG and Celta Vigo 1.29 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Real Sociedad beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 1.05 / defence 1.09 against Celta Vigo attack 1.05 / defence 0.69, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 29% | Draw 30% | Celta Vigo 41%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Real Sociedad win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 47%, Celta Vigo 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Sociedad's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Celta Vigo's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Real Sociedad 1.21 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Sociedad win broke the near-deadlock. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights