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Shock result as Celta Vigo defy the odds to beat Real Sociedad 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Celta Vigo beat Real Sociedad 0-1 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.32 xG and Celta Vigo 1.28 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Real Sociedad fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 0.77 / defence 0.91 against Celta Vigo attack 1.19 / defence 1.23, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 38% | Draw 26% | Celta Vigo 36%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Celta Vigo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 41%, Celta Vigo 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Sociedad's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Celta Vigo's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Real Sociedad 1.41 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights