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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid finished level at 1-1 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.16 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.48 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 1.04 / defence 1.23 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.07 / defence 0.79, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 28% | Draw 28% | Atletico Madrid 43%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 46%, Atletico Madrid 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Sociedad's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Atletico Madrid's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights