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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

La Liga · Regular Season - 18

Kick-off

Sun 4 Jan 2026

20:00

Venue

Reale Arena

Competition

La Liga

Spain

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Atletico Madrid Win

28%

Real Sociedad

3.53

28%

Draw

3.52

43%

Atletico Madrid

2.31

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.3%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

10.6%

Away win

1 – 2

9.1%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.16

Real Sociedad xG

Total xG

2.63

1.48

Atletico Madrid xG

28%
28%
43%
Real SociedadDrawAtletico Madrid

3.53

28%

Home win

3.52

28%

Draw

2.31

43%

Away win

Goals Markets

74%

Over 1.5

1.35

26%

Under 1.5

3.85

49%

Over 2.5

2.04

51%

Under 2.5

1.96

27%

Over 3.5

3.70

73%

Under 3.5

1.37

13%

Over 4.5

7.69

87%

Under 4.5

1.15

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

54%

BTTS Yes

1.85

46%

BTTS No

2.18

Clean Sheet

23%

Real Sociedad

4.38

32%

Atletico Madrid

3.17

Win to Nil

6%

Real Sociedad

15.48

14%

Atletico Madrid

7.33

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.2 10.6 7.8 3.9 1.4 0.4
1 8.3 12.3 9.1 4.5 1.7 0.5
2 4.8 7.1 5.2 2.6 1.0 0.3
3 1.8 2.7 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1
4 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1
5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.155
λ Away (xG) 1.478
Total xG 2.633
League avg home goals 1.403
League avg away goals 1.120
Real Sociedad attack strength 1.043
Real Sociedad defence strength 1.234
Atletico Madrid attack strength 1.068
Atletico Madrid defence strength 0.790
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 55 / 56