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Stalemate at Real Sociedad's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Sociedad and Athletic Club finished level at 0-0 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 0.83 xG and Athletic Club 0.97 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Real Sociedad fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Athletic Club landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 0.83 / defence 0.97 against Athletic Club attack 0.82 / defence 0.73, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 30% | Draw 33% | Athletic Club 38%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 41%, Athletic Club 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Sociedad's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Athletic Club's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Real Sociedad 1.44 PPG, Athletic Club 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Athletic Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights