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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Real Madrid run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Valencia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Madrid beat Valencia 4-0 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Regular Season - 11, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Madrid 2.12 xG and Valencia 0.75 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Real Madrid beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Madrid attack 1.27 / defence 0.80 against Valencia attack 0.79 / defence 1.19, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Madrid 69% | Draw 19% | Valencia 12%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Madrid 60%, Valencia 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Madrid's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Valencia's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Real Madrid (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights