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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Valencia defy the odds to beat Real Madrid 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valencia beat Real Madrid 1-2 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Regular Season - 30, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Madrid 2.61 xG and Valencia 1.08 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Real Madrid fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Valencia outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Madrid attack 1.48 / defence 0.97 against Valencia attack 0.94 / defence 1.25, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Madrid 70% | Draw 16% | Valencia 14%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a Valencia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Madrid 58%, Valencia 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Madrid's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Valencia's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Valencia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Real Madrid (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valencia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights