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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Real Madrid cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Real Sociedad.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Madrid beat Real Sociedad 2-0 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Regular Season - 38, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Madrid 2.30 xG and Real Sociedad 1.08 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Real Sociedad landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Madrid attack 1.39 / defence 1.03 against Real Sociedad attack 0.89 / defence 1.20, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Madrid 65% | Draw 19% | Real Sociedad 17%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Madrid 57%, Real Sociedad 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Madrid's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Real Sociedad's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.41. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights