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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Real Madrid run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Real Betis.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Madrid beat Real Betis 5-1 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Madrid 1.43 xG and Real Betis 0.95 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Real Madrid beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Madrid attack 1.22 / defence 0.79 against Real Betis attack 1.09 / defence 0.84, drawn from 56/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Madrid 47% | Draw 29% | Real Betis 24%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Madrid 60%, Real Betis 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Madrid's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Real Betis's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.60. That form edge translated into the three points. Real Madrid (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.26 average — above their attacking norm. Real Betis (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights