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Prediction vindicated as Real Madrid edge out Osasuna 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Madrid beat Osasuna 1-0 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Regular Season - 1, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Madrid 1.67 xG and Osasuna 1.12 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Osasuna landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Madrid attack 1.20 / defence 0.95 against Osasuna attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 38/38 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Real Madrid 50% | Draw 24% | Osasuna 25%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Madrid 58%, Osasuna 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Madrid's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Osasuna's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.37. That form edge translated into the three points. Real Madrid (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights