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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Real Madrid edge out Mallorca 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Madrid beat Mallorca 2-1 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Regular Season - 3, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Madrid 1.41 xG and Mallorca 0.86 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Madrid attack 1.12 / defence 0.86 against Mallorca attack 0.87 / defence 0.93, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Real Madrid 50% | Draw 27% | Mallorca 23%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Madrid 58%, Mallorca 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Madrid's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Mallorca's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights