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Prediction vindicated as Real Madrid edge out Mallorca 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Madrid beat Mallorca 2-1 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Madrid 1.62 xG and Mallorca 0.90 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Madrid attack 1.37 / defence 1.04 against Mallorca attack 0.75 / defence 0.86, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Madrid 54% | Draw 25% | Mallorca 21%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Madrid 58%, Mallorca 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Madrid's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Mallorca's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights