🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Real Madrid cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Levante.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Madrid beat Levante 2-0 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Regular Season - 20, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Madrid 2.02 xG and Levante 0.92 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Levante landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Madrid attack 1.45 / defence 0.81 against Levante attack 1.01 / defence 0.99, drawn from 57/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Madrid 61% | Draw 24% | Levante 15%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Madrid 67%, Levante 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Madrid's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Levante's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Levante (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights