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Prediction vindicated as Real Madrid edge out Leganes 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Madrid beat Leganes 3-2 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Madrid 2.34 xG and Leganes 0.73 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Leganes outscored their 0.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Madrid attack 1.45 / defence 0.87 against Leganes attack 0.71 / defence 1.13, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Madrid 73% | Draw 17% | Leganes 10%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 73%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Madrid 61%, Leganes 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Madrid's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Leganes's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Real Madrid (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Leganes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights