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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Real Madrid run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Las Palmas.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Madrid beat Las Palmas 4-1 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Regular Season - 20, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Madrid 2.01 xG and Las Palmas 1.12 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Real Madrid beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Madrid attack 1.45 / defence 0.94 against Las Palmas attack 1.01 / defence 1.00, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Madrid 58% | Draw 21% | Las Palmas 21%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Madrid 58%, Las Palmas 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Madrid's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.

Las Palmas's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.09. Form held, and they took the win. Real Madrid (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.57 average — above their attacking norm. Las Palmas (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights