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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Real Madrid and Girona share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Regular Season - 31, as Real Madrid and Girona drew 1-1 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Madrid 2.04 xG and Girona 0.97 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Real Madrid fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Madrid attack 1.40 / defence 0.96 against Girona attack 0.91 / defence 0.93, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Madrid 62% | Draw 21% | Girona 17%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Madrid 60%, Girona 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Madrid's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Girona's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Real Madrid (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights