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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Real Madrid cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Girona.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Madrid beat Girona 2-0 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Regular Season - 25, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Madrid 2.26 xG and Girona 0.92 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Girona landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Madrid attack 1.49 / defence 0.90 against Girona attack 0.88 / defence 1.07, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Madrid 68% | Draw 18% | Girona 14%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Madrid 56%, Girona 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Madrid's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.

Girona's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.81. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights