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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Real Madrid run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Elche.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Madrid beat Elche 4-1 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Madrid 2.56 xG and Elche 0.82 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Real Madrid beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Madrid attack 1.29 / defence 0.85 against Elche attack 0.87 / defence 1.31, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Madrid 75% | Draw 16% | Elche 10%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 75%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Madrid 59%, Elche 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Madrid's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Elche's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Real Madrid (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.23 average — above their attacking norm. Elche (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights