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Prediction vindicated as Rayo Vallecano edge out Valladolid 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayo Vallecano beat Valladolid 1-0 at Estadio de Vallecas, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 2.56 xG and Valladolid 0.95 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rayo Vallecano fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Valladolid landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 1.12 / defence 1.14 against Valladolid attack 0.74 / defence 1.61, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 72% | Draw 16% | Valladolid 12%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 46%, Valladolid 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Valladolid's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Rayo Vallecano arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Valladolid (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights