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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rayo Vallecano and Real Sociedad share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayo Vallecano and Real Sociedad finished level at 3-3 at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Regular Season - 32, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.38 xG and Real Sociedad 0.88 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Rayo Vallecano beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Real Sociedad outscored their 0.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.84 / defence 0.75 against Real Sociedad attack 1.04 / defence 1.06, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 49% | Draw 28% | Real Sociedad 24%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 41%, Real Sociedad 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Real Sociedad's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.29 PPG, Real Sociedad 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights