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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rayo Vallecano and Real Sociedad share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayo Vallecano and Real Sociedad finished level at 2-2 at Estadio de Vallecas, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.36 xG and Real Sociedad 0.81 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Real Sociedad outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.90 / defence 1.01 against Real Sociedad attack 0.71 / defence 1.07, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 50% | Draw 28% | Real Sociedad 22%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 38%, Real Sociedad 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Real Sociedad's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.14 PPG, Real Sociedad 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights