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Prediction vindicated as Rayo Vallecano edge out Mallorca 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayo Vallecano beat Mallorca 2-1 at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 0.97 xG and Mallorca 0.78 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Rayo Vallecano beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.66 / defence 0.78 against Mallorca attack 0.89 / defence 1.04, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 37% | Draw 37% | Mallorca 26%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 39%, Mallorca 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Mallorca's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.27 PPG, Mallorca 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayo Vallecano win broke the near-deadlock. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights