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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Rayo Vallecano take on Mallorca.

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Full Analysis

Campo de Futbol de Vallecas plays host to Rayo Vallecano versus Mallorca in La Liga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 11 January 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Current Form

Rayo Vallecano's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Rayo Vallecano have posted 1W 8D 1L at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Mallorca (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Mallorca's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Mallorca hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Mallorca have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Data

Rayo Vallecano goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 50% versus Mallorca 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayo Vallecano 39% | Mallorca 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 0.97 xG and Mallorca 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.663 / defence 0.783 | Mallorca attack 0.892 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.120. Rayo Vallecano's attack strength of 0.663 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rayo Vallecano's defence rating of 0.783 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Rayo Vallecano games / 56 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 37% | Draw 37% | Mallorca 26%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 2.70 | Draw 2.70 | Mallorca 3.85. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 1.76 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rayo Vallecano 50% | Mallorca 60%.

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