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Prediction vindicated as Rayo Vallecano edge out Girona 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayo Vallecano beat Girona 2-1 at Estadio de Vallecas, Regular Season - 21, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.37 xG and Girona 1.24 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 1.08 / defence 1.13 against Girona attack 0.94 / defence 0.92, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 40% | Draw 26% | Girona 34%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 40%, Girona 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Girona's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Rayo Vallecano winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights