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Prediction vindicated as Rayo Vallecano edge out Espanyol 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayo Vallecano beat Espanyol 1-0 at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Regular Season - 33, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.54 xG and Espanyol 0.95 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Espanyol landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.87 / defence 0.82 against Espanyol attack 1.04 / defence 1.15, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 51% | Draw 26% | Espanyol 23%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 42%, Espanyol 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Espanyol's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.26 PPG, Espanyol 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayo Vallecano win broke the near-deadlock. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Espanyol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights