Rayo Vallecano 3-0 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo meet at Estadio de Vallecas in La Liga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Rayo Vallecano's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio de Vallecas, Rayo Vallecano have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Rayo Vallecano are significantly better at Estadio de Vallecas than their overall form suggests.
Celta Vigo (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Celta Vigo's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Rayo Vallecano against 1.20 for Celta Vigo. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Rayo Vallecano, 3 for Celta Vigo and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 9 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 0–3 with Celta Vigo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Rayo Vallecano goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Celta Vigo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 53% versus Celta Vigo 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayo Vallecano 43% | Celta Vigo 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 0.97 xG and Celta Vigo 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.914 / defence 1.178 | Celta Vigo attack 0.698 / defence 0.664. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.253. Celta Vigo's defence strength of 0.664 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 47 Rayo Vallecano games / 48 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 31% | Draw 34% | Celta Vigo 34%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | Celta Vigo 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Rayo Vallecano 60% | Celta Vigo 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio de Vallecas • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 31% | Draw 34% | Celta Vigo 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Rayo Vallecano 0.97 / Celta Vigo 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.914 / def 1.178 | Celta Vigo attack 0.698 / def 0.664 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Rayo Vallecano xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Celta Vigo xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Estadio de Vallecas.
What was the final score in Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?
Rayo Vallecano 3 - 0 Celta Vigo.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Vallecas.
What competition is Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo part of?
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Rayo Vallecano a 31% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo?
Record (9 meetings): Rayo Vallecano 2W | Draws 4 | Celta Vigo 3W.
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo in?
Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Celta Vigo (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rayo Vallecano's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Celta Vigo's defensive record (0.66x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. Flip it around — Celta Vigo's attack (0.70x) against Rayo Vallecano's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
31%
3.20
34%
2.91
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Rayo Vallecano xG
Total xG
2.00
1.03
Celta Vigo xG
3.20
31%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
11%
8.98
13%
7.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 14.0 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.03 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rayo Vallecano's recent record stands at 14W 17D 16L from 47 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Rayo Vallecano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Celta Vigo, meanwhile, have gone 16W 18D 13L across 47 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Rayo Vallecano against 1.40 for Celta Vigo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rayo Vallecano have managed 9W 11D 3L from 23 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Celta Vigo's away record stands at 8W 11D 4L across 23 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rayo Vallecano are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.34 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 47 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
Celta Vigo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Rayo Vallecano have gone 14W 17D 16L in their last 47 games (1.26 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 16W 18D 13L in their last 47 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayo Vallecano at home or Celta Vigo away?
Rayo Vallecano's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayo Vallecano at home: 1.65 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Rayo Vallecano or Celta Vigo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rayo Vallecano have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Celta Vigo in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Celta Vigo won 3-0 on 11 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rayo Vallecano have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Celta Vigo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Rayo Vallecano
4
Draws
3
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo?
From 10 meetings on record, Rayo Vallecano have won 3, Celta Vigo have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Rayo Vallecano 3-0 Celta Vigo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Celta Vigo see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayo Vallecano 56%, Celta Vigo 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Rayo Vallecano and 35% for Celta Vigo.
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Celta Vigo in 39%; Celta Vigo in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayo Vallecano home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayo Vallecano play Celta Vigo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Rayo Vallecano's games and 56% of Celta Vigo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Rayo Vallecano's recent games and 35% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo tend to score early?
Rayo Vallecano have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Celta Vigo in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rayo Vallecano run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Celta Vigo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayo Vallecano beat Celta Vigo 3-0 at Estadio de Vallecas, Regular Season - 11, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 0.97 xG and Celta Vigo 1.03 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Rayo Vallecano beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Celta Vigo landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.91 / defence 1.18 against Celta Vigo attack 0.70 / defence 0.66, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 31% | Draw 34% | Celta Vigo 34%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Rayo Vallecano win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 43%, Celta Vigo 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.26 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayo Vallecano win broke the near-deadlock. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.