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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo finished level at 1-1 at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Regular Season - 5, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.33 xG and Celta Vigo 1.14 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.91 / defence 0.96 against Celta Vigo attack 1.05 / defence 1.00, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 41% | Draw 27% | Celta Vigo 32%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 43%, Celta Vigo 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Celta Vigo's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.33 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights