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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

La Liga · Regular Season - 5

Kick-off

Sun 21 Sep 2025

13:00

Venue

Campo de Futbol de Vallecas

Competition

La Liga

Spain

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Rayo Vallecano Win

41%

Rayo Vallecano

2.45

27%

Draw

3.68

32%

Celta Vigo

3.13

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.8%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

11.2%

Home win

0 – 1

9.6%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.33

Rayo Vallecano xG

Total xG

2.47

1.14

Celta Vigo xG

41%
27%
32%
Rayo VallecanoDrawCelta Vigo

2.45

41%

Home win

3.68

27%

Draw

3.13

32%

Away win

Goals Markets

71%

Over 1.5

1.41

29%

Under 1.5

3.45

45%

Over 2.5

2.22

55%

Under 2.5

1.82

24%

Over 3.5

4.17

76%

Under 3.5

1.32

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

50%

BTTS Yes

1.99

50%

BTTS No

2.01

Clean Sheet

32%

Rayo Vallecano

3.14

26%

Celta Vigo

3.78

Win to Nil

13%

Rayo Vallecano

7.68

8%

Celta Vigo

11.81

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.4 9.6 5.5 2.1 0.6 0.1
1 11.2 12.8 7.3 2.8 0.8 0.2
2 7.4 8.5 4.9 1.9 0.5 0.1
3 3.3 3.8 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.1
4 1.1 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1
5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.329
λ Away (xG) 1.144
Total xG 2.473
League avg home goals 1.466
League avg away goals 1.143
Rayo Vallecano attack strength 0.907
Rayo Vallecano defence strength 0.957
Celta Vigo attack strength 1.046
Celta Vigo defence strength 1.000
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 42 / 43