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Prediction vindicated as Rayo Vallecano edge out Celta Vigo 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayo Vallecano beat Celta Vigo 2-1 at Estadio de Vallecas, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 2.03 xG and Celta Vigo 1.27 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 1.07 / defence 1.16 against Celta Vigo attack 0.92 / defence 1.33, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 55% | Draw 21% | Celta Vigo 24%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 39%, Celta Vigo 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Celta Vigo's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.07 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayo Vallecano win broke the near-deadlock. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights