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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Rayo Vallecano edge out Alaves 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayo Vallecano beat Alaves 1-0 at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Regular Season - 10, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 0.90 xG and Alaves 0.89 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Alaves landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.78 / defence 0.91 against Alaves attack 0.82 / defence 0.84, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 33% | Draw 34% | Alaves 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Rayo Vallecano win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 43%, Alaves 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Alaves's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.34 PPG, Alaves 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayo Vallecano win broke the near-deadlock. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights