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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Oviedo and Villarreal share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Oviedo and Villarreal finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Regular Season - 33, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oviedo 0.83 xG and Villarreal 1.04 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oviedo attack 0.56 / defence 0.87 against Villarreal attack 1.07 / defence 0.96, drawn from 31/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oviedo 28% | Draw 32% | Villarreal 40%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oviedo 39%, Villarreal 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oviedo's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did.

Villarreal's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights