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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

La Liga · Regular Season - 33

Kick-off

Thu 23 Apr 2026

20:30

Venue

Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere

Competition

La Liga

Spain

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Villarreal Win

28%

Oviedo

3.51

32%

Draw

3.14

40%

Villarreal

2.52

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

0 – 1

16.0%

Away win

Most likely

0 – 0

15.4%

Draw

1 – 1

13.3%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

0.83

Oviedo xG

Total xG

1.87

1.04

Villarreal xG

28%
32%
40%
OviedoDrawVillarreal

3.51

28%

Home win

3.14

32%

Draw

2.52

40%

Away win

Goals Markets

56%

Over 1.5

1.79

44%

Under 1.5

2.27

29%

Over 2.5

3.45

71%

Under 2.5

1.41

12%

Over 3.5

8.33

88%

Under 3.5

1.14

4%

Over 4.5

25.00

96%

Under 4.5

1.04

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

37%

BTTS Yes

2.74

63%

BTTS No

1.58

Clean Sheet

35%

Oviedo

2.83

44%

Villarreal

2.30

Win to Nil

10%

Oviedo

9.93

17%

Villarreal

5.79

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 15.4 16.0 8.3 2.9 0.7 0.2
1 12.8 13.3 6.9 2.4 0.6 0.1
2 5.3 5.5 2.9 1.0 0.3 0.1
3 1.5 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1
4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1
5 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 0.832
λ Away (xG) 1.040
Total xG 1.872
League avg home goals 1.542
League avg away goals 1.112
Oviedo attack strength 0.564
Oviedo defence strength 0.873
Villarreal attack strength 1.072
Villarreal defence strength 0.957
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 31 / 69