🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Oviedo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Regular Season - 13, as Oviedo and Rayo Vallecano drew 0-0 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oviedo 0.77 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.41 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rayo Vallecano landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oviedo attack 0.53 / defence 1.26 against Rayo Vallecano attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oviedo 20% | Draw 27% | Rayo Vallecano 52%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oviedo 33%, Rayo Vallecano 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oviedo's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Rayo Vallecano arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Oviedo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights